PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:US Open Day 1: What you missed as 2024's final Grand Slam begins

NEW YORK — The PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerease with which No. 3 seed Coco Gauff dispatched France’s Varvara Gracheva on Monday, 6-2, 6-0, has been the exception rather than the norm of late.

It’s been a tough summer for Gauff leading up to her U.S. Open title defense.

After a disappointing early exit from the Paris Olympics, she didn’t play particularly well in either Canada or Cincinnati, where she was also defending a title. So while Gauff is certainly capable of a deep run, expectations coming into the season’s final Grand Slam were considerably lower than last year when she arrived as the hottest player in women’s tennis still trying to win her first.

“A couple days ago, somebody commented on my TikTok and said, ‘Why stress yourself out? You’ve won literally and figuratively,’ ” Gauff said in her pre-tournament news conference. “I was like, that’s actually a good perspective. No one can take that from me, so why stress myself over something I already have? I just want to add to that, whether it happens here in two weeks or next year.”

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On paper, Gracheva was a matchup that seemed like potential trouble for Gauff if she wasn’t playing well. But it turned out there was no cause for concern. Gauff played well enough to make this matchup uneventful and moves on to face Germany’s Tatjana Maria, the world’s 99th-ranked player, in the second round.

Here are the other storylines you might have missed from a very busy Monday as the U.S. Open got underway:

Match of the day

A couple hours into the match between American Chris Eubanks and France’s Arthur Rinderknech, you could tell it was going to be a wild one. Out on Court 11, chants of “USA! USA!” were ringing out in between points, sometimes even between first and second serve. The momentum was swinging back and forth. The crowd was doing everything it could to propel Eubanks to a win.

Instead, after 3 hours and 49 minutes, Rinderknech prevailed 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (10-8).

There wasn’t much of a difference in this one, but here’s one that sticks out: Eubanks, known as a big server, won 77 percent of the points where he landed a first serve. Rinderknech won 80 percent of those points. Small margin, but perhaps a significant difference in a match that was decided by a point here or there.

Biggest collapse

Sloane Stephens, the 2017 champion, doesn’t get a lot of center court assignments these days. Though still a big draw for the fans and capable of beating top opponents when she’s on, Stephens is down to No. 62 in the rankings and seems a bit like a part-time player these days.

So it was curious for her to get placed on Arthur Ashe Stadium to begin Monday’s night session against No. 56 Clara Burel. There was even Internet speculation it might be part of a forthcoming retirement announcement and ceremony. (If that’s the case, nothing came of it Monday: Stephens left the court quickly and didn’t immediately meet with the press afterwards.)

Instead, Stephens’ performance was memorable for all the wrong reasons. Leading 6-0, 3-0 at one point, her US Open ended with Burel inexplicably coming back to win 0-6, 7-5, 7-5.

And Stephens had every opportunity to finish it off. She couldn’t serve out the second set at 5-4. She couldn’t consolidate third set breaks at 2-1 or 4-3, and again had the match on her racquet at 5-4 but failed to close the deal. All told, it’s the third time Stephens has lost in the first round in her last six US Opens. But this one is likely to sting a bit more than the others.

Biggest upset

No. 15 seed Holger Rune, who reached the semifinals in Cincinnati just over a week ago, played a hideous match against American Brandon Nakashima and was dismissed from the U.S. Open in straight sets.

Nakashima, the 23-year-old from San Diego ranked No. 50, easily advanced 6-2, 6-1, 6-4.

No disrespect to Nakashima, who played a solid enough match, but Rune was simply horrendous with just 19 winners to 30 unforced errors, a mere 39 percent of first serves in play and 0-of-6 on break points.

Rune, who was breathing similar air as Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner a couple years ago among the young prodigy crowd, finishes the 2024 Slam season with a second-round loss in Australia, fourth-round exists at the French and Wimbledon and now this first-round loss. He has a lot to figure out in the offseason.

Biggest heartbreak

Reilly Opelka, the 6-foot-11 American who reached a career-high of No. 17 a couple years ago, was on the verge of pushing No. 18 seed Lorenzo Musetti to a fifth set when the wheels completely came off.

Up 5-3 and 40-0 on his serve in the fourth set, Opelka made several crucial errors to get the game back to deuce. Opelka paid the price, eventually dropping serve with a double fault. Musetti then won 12 of the next 13 points to close out the match.

It’s not a surprise that Opelka, 26, isn’t back in top form yet. Considered one of America’s rising stars, he only recently returned to the tour after two injury-plagued years, including surgeries on his hip and wrist. Possessing one of the game’s biggest serves, Opelka came back after Wimbledon and showed some decent flashes of form, winning five of his 10 matches. He had a real chance Monday to notch an upset here but fell apart in hard-to-watch fashion when he couldn’t close the fourth set.

Goodbye ceremonies

Though Dominic Thiem and Diego Schwartzman will play more matches before they officially retire, the tournament held short ceremonies commemorating each of them for playing their final U.S. Opens. Thiem, the 2020 champion, lost 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 to No. 13 seed Ben Shelton, while Schwartzman’s game went completely flat against Gael Monfils after he won the first set.

Schwartzman has long been a fan favorite as one of the smallest players on tour, listed generously by the ATP at 5-foot-7. Though he never came particularly close to winning a major, he got the absolute maximum out of his talent including three deep runs at the French Open, two quarterfinal appearances at the U.S. Open and four ATP titles.

Unfortunately, Schwartzman’s game deteriorated in recent years and his ranking has slipped to No. 244. He’ll continue playing until next February when the tour comes to Argentina, his home country. But he said the 6-7, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 loss on Grandstand court was a special way to finish at a tournament that had a big impact on his career.

“U.S. Open 2017 was the first time I felt like I was a great player and I become top 30 for the first time, and after that my tennis improve a lot and felt great always coming here,” Schwartzman said. “I’m happy how I did here and how the crowd treated me all these years. At the end I was struggling but I think it was great, this journey here in the U.S. Open. It was great every single moment.”

Notable matches Tuesday

• No. 10 seed Jelena Ostapenko vs. two-time U.S. Open champion Naomi Osaka
• 2019 U.S. Open champion Bianca Andreescu vs. recent French and Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini
• No. 14 seed Tommy Paul vs. Lorenzo Sonego, who won the Winston-Salem title Sunday
• No. 19 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime vs big-time Czech prospect Jakub Mensik
• No. 24 seed Arthur Fils vs. 18-year-old American Learner Tien

Follow Dan Wolken on social media @DanWolken

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